Power market modelling and price forecasting you can act on.
Fundamentals-based models of power and gas markets that turn assumptions about demand, fuel, carbon, policy and new build into price forecasts your traders, analysts and board can trust.
Where are power and gas prices heading, and why?
We build and run market models that simulate how supply, demand, interconnection and policy interact to set prices, from hourly dispatch to multi-decade outlooks. Every forecast comes with a clear assumptions book, so you can see what drives the numbers and test what happens when those drivers change.
As renewables, storage and flexible demand reshape price formation, forecasting has become more complex and more consequential. We help you capture those dynamics, including capture prices, cannibalisation and volatility, in forecasts that inform trading, hedging, investment and strategy.
The value to your business.
Decisions grounded in fundamentals
Prices are explained by the system, not extrapolated from history, so forecasts hold up as markets change.
Transparent assumptions
A documented assumptions book lets stakeholders challenge inputs rather than distrust outputs.
Scenario thinking
Central, high and low cases plus policy and technology scenarios show the range of outcomes, not just one number.
Renewables-ready
Capture prices, cannibalisation and negative-price risk are modelled explicitly for wind, solar and storage.
Our method, step by step.
- Define the decision the forecast must support
- Agree markets, zones, horizon and time resolution
- Choose the right modelling tool for the question
- Build demand, fuel, carbon and new-build assumptions
- Represent interconnectors, policy and market rules
- Document everything in a shared assumptions book
- Construct or update the market model
- Back-test against historical prices and dispatch
- Calibrate until results are explainable and robust
- Run central, high, low and bespoke scenarios
- Produce price curves, capture prices and volatility metrics
- Translate results into clear implications for your business
Deliverables
Practical, reusable outputs that your team owns.
Is this the right next step?
- You need an independent view of long-term power or gas prices
- Your forecasts are hard to explain or reconcile with the market
- You are entering a new market or zone
- Renewable growth is changing price shapes in your markets
Why clients choose us.
- Hands-on experience with PLEXOS, PROMOD and BID3
- Forecasts built to be explained, not just produced
- Independent of any vendor or data provider
- A bridge between modelling teams and trading desks
