Gas price forecasting and gas market modelling.
Fundamentals-based gas market models and price forecasts for NBP, TTF and European hubs, covering LNG, storage, pipelines and the power sector, so you can trade, hedge and invest with confidence.
Gas markets are now global, interruptible and highly sensitive to geopolitics.
European gas prices are set by LNG competition with Asia, storage levels, pipeline flows, weather and the power sector's demand for gas. Disruption to supply routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz in 2026, can move prices sharply within days.
Our gas market modelling explains those drivers and turns them into forecasts and scenarios your traders, risk managers and investment committees can act on.
Gas market fundamentals, end to end.
Supply and LNG
Pipeline imports, domestic production and global LNG flows, including competition with Asian buyers and shipping constraints.
Demand and gas-for-power
Residential, industrial and power-sector demand, with gas burn linked to renewable output and the power merit order.
Storage and seasonal spreads
Injection and withdrawal, storage targets and the summer-winter spread that drives storage value.
Hub prices and basis
NBP, TTF and other European hub prices, and the spreads between them.
Geopolitical and supply-shock scenarios
Route disruptions, sanctions and force majeure modelled as explicit scenarios against your portfolio.
Long-term outlooks
Decarbonisation, hydrogen and demand-decline pathways for investment and strategy decisions.
Outputs your business can use.
Monthly, seasonal and long-term price forecasts by hub, with a documented assumptions book.
Consistent assumptions across power and gas, so spark spreads and gas-for-power demand hang together.
Valuation of storage capacity, swing contracts and flexible supply against modelled price paths.
High, low and disruption scenarios that feed risk, liquidity and hedging decisions.
Curves and scenarios published into your ETRM or CTRM and risk reporting.
Common questions.
What drives European gas prices?
Mainly the balance between LNG and pipeline supply, storage levels, weather-driven demand, gas use in power generation and competition for LNG cargoes with Asia, with geopolitics able to shift all of these quickly.
Do you forecast NBP and TTF prices?
Yes. We model the main European hubs, including NBP and TTF, and the spreads between them, from monthly horizons to long-term outlooks.
Can you model power and gas together?
Yes. Integrated modelling keeps assumptions consistent across both markets, which matters for spark spreads, gas-for-power demand and portfolio hedging.
Can gas scenarios be used for stress testing?
Yes. We build supply-disruption, sanctions and weather scenarios that can be run against your live portfolio in your ETRM or CTRM.
